Domestic car production declines in first half of year

In June, domestic car production reached a volume of 350,200 units. That was 9% less than in the same month last year. Since January, 2.1mn cars have been manufactured in Germany. That is 6% less than in the same period last year. Compared to the pre-crisis year of 2019, production after the first half of the current year was still 16% below that level.

Due to the currently weaker than expected development in demand for electric cars, the VDA is also adjusting its forecast for domestic production of electric cars: In total, around 1.33mn electric cars are expected to be manufactured in Germany in 2024, 5% more than in the previous year (forecast at the beginning of the year: +16% to 1.47mn units). We are primarily assuming less growth in the production of purely battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). While at the beginning of this year we were still expecting a production volume of 1.15mn units, we are now expecting domestic BEV production to amount to 1.00mn vehicles. Accordingly, BEV production growth compared to the previous year is likely to be only 5% instead of the previously assumed 20%. The forecast for domestic production of plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), however, remains unchanged: we continue to expect an increase of 5% compared to the previous year and a volume of 327,000 units.

In June, 275,800 brand new cars were exported from production facilities in Germany (–5%). Since January, a good 1.6mn new cars have been exported, 2% fewer than in the same period last year. After the first six months of this year, exports are still almost 13% below the pre-crisis level of 2019.

Compared to the same month last year, 15% more orders from domestic sources were registered in June of this year. In contrast, orders from abroad in June were 2% below the previous year's level. Overall - domestic and foreign orders combined - about the same number of orders were registered in June as in the same period last year, but after the first half of this year, 3% more than in the previous year.

In the first half of 2024, new car registrations on the German passenger car market increased - also due to the previous year's level remaining weak by historical comparison. In the first six months, a total of 1.47mn new cars were registered, a good 5% more than in the first half of the previous year. Despite the recent increase in car registrations, the gap to pre-crisis levels remains high: the current volume is around 20% below the sales level of 2019. Sales in June were positive compared to the same month last year, but benefited from a special effect. The implementation of a new EU type approval regulation from July 7, 2024, has led to some new registrations being brought forward. This particularly affects vehicles that are not yet equipped with the assistance systems required by the new EU regulation. In the past month, 297,300 new cars were registered in Germany, an increase of 6% compared to the same month last year.

Developments on the German electric car market

The German market for electric cars (BEV, PHEV, FCEV) was unable to benefit from the recent positive trend in the overall market and lagged behind its dynamics. In the first half of the year, new registrations of electric cars slipped into the red: In the first six months, a total of 273,700 units were newly registered, 9% fewer than in the first half of the previous year. In June, a total of 58,800 electric cars were newly registered. This was almost 15% fewer than a year earlier.

Sales figures for BEVs in particular are currently continuing to develop undynamically. After the first six months, a total of 184,100 purely battery-electric vehicles were registered, 16% fewer than in the same period last year. In June, the market again declined sharply year-on-year, marking the sixth month in a row that it had to accept a decline compared to the same month last year. The volume of 43,400 registered units was well below the previous year’s level - by around 18%. The PHEV segment has recently been much more stable. Although 15,400 newly registered units were a good 3% fewer than in June of the previous year, there was still an increase over the course of the year: in the first six months, a total of 89,500 new PHEVs were registered, a good 13% more than in the same period last year.

Demand for electric vehicles remains weak in Germany and is mainly due to the abrupt end of funding by the federal government and the weak overall economic development. Accordingly, the VDA is adjusting its forecasts for electric vehicle sales for 2024: We expect new registrations in the German electric car market to decline by 17% to 578,000 units in 2024 as a whole (previous forecast: –9% to 635,000 units). The reduction is above average in the BEV segment. The VDA expects sales to decline by a quarter (–25%) to a volume of 393,000 vehicles (previous forecast: –14% to 451,000 units). The forecast for the PHEV segment remains unchanged, with expected growth of 5% to 185,000 units.