Classic car prices slightly on the rise

Classic car prices in Germany rose slightly in 2023. The German Classic Car Index (DOX), which the Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) publishes annually, reached a score of 2,931 as of January 1, 2024. This corresponds to an increase of 1.0% over the previous year. It was once again below the inflation rate. The DOX is used to provide a trend statement on the value development of classic cars in Germany. The vehicle values are determined by the valuation specialist classic-analytics. 88 representative vehicles are selected for this purpose and weighted depending on their registration numbers. Vehicles that are traded at particularly high prices due to their rarity or history are not taken into account. The DOX has been calculated since 1999. Once starting with a base value of 1,000 points, there has been a 193% increase in value in Germany since then.

The German classic car index shows a slower development. The unfavorable framework conditions - especially the high inflation rate in 2023 and the lack of economic growth - had a below-average impact on the classic car market as of January 1, 2024. A 7% increase in new car registrations in 2023 compared to 2022 has eased the price level in the used car segment somewhat. A spillover effect on the perception of the value of classic cars is conceivable. The DOX remains unaffected at a high level.

Some models have developed significantly stronger than the market as a whole, but the broad middle range of the vehicles examined shows only small changes in value. The influence of fluctuations in the number of vehicles of a model traded during the period under review should also be noticed: here, models have sometimes developed significantly in terms of price increases or price erosion, and for individual models - depending on the number of vehicles traded - there may also have been a change between price increases and price erosion during the period under review.

Eight vehicles from German manufacturers in the Top 10

For the current DOX, the observation period was shortened to 1 year in order to exclude possible pandemic effects. The values mentioned refer to a comparison of the year 2023 with the year 2022 (or the reference dates January 1, 2024 with January 1, 2023).

Most of the models are everyday vehicles. Interestingly, the Top 10 in terms of value increases include eight vehicles from German manufacturers. In detail: The value of the VW Variant 412 L has increased the most (+76%). The Mercedes W 198 (gullwing) follows with +50%. Directly behind it are everyday vehicles such as the Mercedes W123 (+44%), the Ford Escort 1100 from 1968-1970 (+43%) and the BMW 7 Series E23 (+22%). This is followed by the Lloyd Alexander TS (+20%), the Mazda MX5 (+19%) and the Porsche 924 (+15%). The Toyota MR2 (+14%) and the Mercedes-Benz R107 (+13%) round out the top 10. This means that two sports vehicles of Japanese origin are in the Top 10. A large number of the vehicles considered in the index have not experienced any price change.

At the other end of the scale (Last 10) are the Renault R4 (1972-74), the BMW 635 CSI, the Jaguar E-Type V12 S3 Cabriolet and the Ferrari 328 GTS. These are all unchanged from the previous year. The Mercedes-Benz 220 4TL (1951-1955) and the Alfa Romeo 2000GTV (1971-1977) fell by 1%, the Fiat 124 Sport Spider fell by 2%. The Porsche 356 C 1600 Coupe fell by 3%, the Jaguar XJ6 4.2 by 6% and the Buick Rivera Coupe by 8%.

According to classic-analytics, the current market situation is stable. It should be remembered that the changes in valuation can only be a guide. The influence of the number of vehicles of a model traded and the relationship to long-term price development are key factors. A slight price erosion after disproportionate development is understandable and does not automatically represent a trend.

What is crucial is a differentiated consideration and assessment of the vehicle's condition by an expert on the one hand and the buyer on the other, to whom the model represents the corresponding value.

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